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Is where you go to buy and sell things for Bitcoin. Hey Guys, When I go on coinwarz to calculate the profitability of some mining setup, it always give an approximate time to solo mine a block (i.e., 'Days to generate one block mining solo: 19.88 Day(s) (can vary greatly depending on your luck)'.

What's luck have to do with it? Hypothetically, let's say I have enough hash power to solo mine a block approximately every 20 days. For the sake of argument, let's say that one block is worth more than I would make mining in a pool for an entire month. Wouldn't it be more profitable to solo mine? I can understand some variance (maybe some blocks take 30 days, maybe some only take 15), but how crucial is this 'luck' element that can't be accounted for? Could it screw me over? If I could solo mine a block in approximately 20 days, what are the chances that I go 60, 120, 365 days not mining a single block?

To use a simple example, when you're mining you're essentially playing the lottery. Cost Of Mining Peercoin PPC. Miners are calculating hashes to solve the next block - depending on how quickly you generate hashes correlates with how often you win this lottery (to an extent, obviously difficulty and block time come into play here).

If you've got the hashing power to make solving a block statistically likely within 20 days, then your chance of actually solving that block approaches 100% as 20 days looms closer (assuming all variables on the network remain the same, which they don't, but that's another story). Luck is pretty much exactly as you imagine it - if you're lucky, your gear will solve a block before approaching 20 days.

If you're unlucky, your gear won't solve a block until well after that. There's no controlling luck, it just happens.

Two resources on the subject that should help: - - • • • • • •. It is all 'luck'. Mining is effectively a lottery where a hash is a lottery ticket. The faster you generate lottery tickets, the more often you win. When someone writes that they have 'enough hash power to solo mine a block approximately every 20 days', they really mean that the average time to mine a block is 20 days. The actual time could range from 1 second to never. I think you misunderstand how a pool works.

Everyone in a pool combines their hashing power to mine blocks and then everyone shares in the proceeds. For example, if a pool consists of 10 people that each could solo mine a block every 20 days, then the pool would mine a block every 2 days, and each person would get 1/10 of the proceeds, and the result is basically the same as solo mining. The advantage of a pool is that you find blocks more frequently, so your revenue is more consistent. The downside of a pool is that the operator takes a cut.

In pooled mining you'll get a percentage of a block based on the percentage of 'guesses' you contributed exactly right. You get a cut of the block reward depending on how much work you sent to the pool to try and solve that block. The more work you put in the higher your reward. But couldn't it technically still happen that the pool 'never' decrypts a block?

For large pools they find blocks quite often so this isnt ever really an issue. If you join a very small private pool though luck will be a factor once again. In theory though it doesnt matter if you join a large pool or a small pool, in the long run the rewards should equalize. Aka you either get a whole bunch of tiny rewards since your big pool is finding blocks constantly, or you get rare huge rewards after your small pool finally finds a block. • • • • • • •.